Analysis of Temperature Trends and the Effects of Climate Change in Sicily

Climate is the average condition of weather at a particular location over a relatively long period of time, ranging from months to thousands of years. Its features is mainly exhibited by a set of relevant parameters (such as temperature, wind velocity, humidity and precipitation) collected over a multiple temporal and spatial scales. The numerical values of those parameters are the outcome of synergistic processes that happen in several complex (and interacting) systems, including the Atmosphere, Hydrosphere, Cryosphere, Lithosphere, Biosphere, and Anthroposphere. In our study we analyze meteorological data from three weather Stations located in Sicily using a historical dataset spanning the period 1983–2024, aiming to identify long-term trends and seasonal variations of temperature using various classical and innovative statistical methods confirming its alignment with global climate change. To identify possible temperature trends, an ordinary least squares linear regression model was applied to the annual maximum, minimum and mean temperature series. This test is more effective than a non-parametric test but the errors are assumed to be independent and identically distributed. Furthermore, non -parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope analysis (which demonstrate greater robustness against extreme values) were applied to detect monotonic trend patterns. The Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) approach was also employed, providing a novel visual methodology for examining fluctuations and possible trends in chronological time series datasets.
Our analysis of annual temperatures over a period of 42 years highlighted a significant trend of increase over time. The results indicate a moderate but constant rate of increase with few substantial differences between the weather stations analyzed over the considered period with an increase of about 0.024 °C/year for maximum temperatures, 0.019 °C/year for minimum temperatures, and an average increase of about 0.021 °C/year, which translates into an average temperature increase of +0.9 °C.
These results are quite consistent with warming at the Global, European and National levels. In fact, from the pre-industrial period (1850–1900) to 2024, the earth's average temperature has elevated by nearly +1.34 °C. 2024 became the warmest year in recorded history,displaying a global mean temperature around +1,55°C ± 0,13°C higher than pre-industrial periods.

___Giuseppe Collorà, Maria Teresa Caccamo, Salvatore Magazù